WORLD BANK ESTIMATES COST OF AVIAN INFLUENZA EPIDEMIC IN VIETNAM

Ha Noi, February 16, 2004 – As long as the avian influenza epidemic does not lead to human-to-human transmission, its overall economic impact will be less than one percent of GDP, according to the World Bank. The combined effects of avian influenza epidemic on the value added of the poultry sector and the tourism sector are analyzed under three scenarios.

In the first one (called “optimistic”) the epidemic recedes rapidly without requiring a massive culling of birds and without affecting international tourist arrivals. The cost to the economy in this situation is estimated at 0.3% of GDP, or the equivalent of US$116 million.

In the second scenario (“intermediate”), the epidemic is contained relatively quickly with an output loss in the poultry sector equal to three months of economic activity, whereas international travel declines by 5 percent on an annual basis. The cost in this scenario amounts to 0.6% of GDP.

The third scenario (“pessimistic”) considers a six-month loss of output from poultry, and adds the negative impact of a decline in international arrivals comparable to the one prompted by SARS. In this scenario, the cost to the economy is estimated at 0.9% of GDP.

In addition to the output loss, there would be a loss of capital due to the massive culling of birds. If all the poultry of Vietnam had to be culled to contain the epidemic, cost could increase to US$690 million, or the equivalent of 1.8 percent of the annual GDP of Vietnam. The impact, therefore, will vary considerably depending on whether the epidemic can be contained at an early stage or requires the culling of all poultry and seriously disrupts international arrivals.

“The gap between the costs under the optimistic and the pessimistic scenario calls for decisive actions at this stage. It also appears that this epidemic could affect the poor more than SARS did. So, measures such as appropriate compensation policies for bird culling and restocking of farms are important to mitigate the social impact of the epidemic. It is also critical to strengthen veterinary services and improve surveillance, in order to avoid resurgence of this disease and quickly control any new outbreaks in the future. The World Bank is helping MARD develop a medium-term strategy,” said Mr. Klaus Rohland, Director of the World Bank in Vietnam.

Click here to download Avian influenza epidemic paper (PDF 16Kb - English)

For more information, please visit this Web site http://www.un.org.vn/avian

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